Beer purchasing hits ‘bullseye’ in November, but craft index still off target

Beer distributors have a neutral outlook on the beer segment as a whole, but craft beer continues to lose favor as we close out 2024. This outlook comes via the National Beer Wholesalers Association‘s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for November 2024, which saw the second-lowest craft reading (18) since the launch of BPI, only surpassed by the April 2020 reading of 14.

BPI is a forward-looking indicator for distributors to measure expected beer demand. The current BPI reading of 50 represents an eight-point increase from last month’s reading of 42 and is on par with the November 2023 reading of 51.

Beer Purchasers Index bullseye

A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting. The combination of index readings for the at-risk inventory at 49 and beer purchasers’ index at 50 is a rare ‘bullseye” outcome that leaves the industry neither bullish nor bearish for the end of the year.

Looking across the segments for November:

• The index for imports continues to point to expanding volumes with a November 2024 reading of 64, five points lower than November 2023 reading of 69.
   
• The craft index at 18 for November 2024 continues to signal contraction in this segment and is eight points lower than the November 2023 reading at 26.
   
• The premium lights index fell to 46 for November 2024, seven points lower than November 2023 reading at 53.
   
• The premium regular index fell to 41 for November 2024, seven points lower than the November 2023 reading at 48.
   
• The below premium segment for November 2024 at 50 is eleven points higher than November 2023 reading of 39. The below premium segment is one of three segments to post a higher reading in November 2024 compared to 2023.
   
• The FMB/seltzer reading for November 2024 at 34 is nine points higher than the November 2023 reading at 25. The FMB segment is one of three segments to post a higher reading in November 2024 compared to 2023
   
• Finally, the cider segment posted a November 2024 reading at 36 compared to 30 for November 2023. The Cider segment is also one of three segments to post a higher reading in November 2024 compared to 2023.