At-risk inventory rises in Beer Purchasers’ Index for August

The Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for August 2022 shows the total beer index is at 46 and “at-risk” inventory is at 54, which marks a notable shift from previous readings for the “at-risk” inventory measure, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA).

BPI is the only forward-looking indicator for distributors to measure expected beer demand. The index surveys beer distributors’ purchases across different segments and compares them to previous years. A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting.

“At-risk” indicates a product is at risk of expiring and going out of code over the next 30 days. This is an expected outcome as higher inventory levels are typically associated with lower orders. Continued inflationary pressures, extreme heat and a slowing economy bring the industry to a third month of pause after five months of positive ordering trends.

Looking across the segments for August …

• The imports index stands as the only beer segment in expansion territory with a reading of 63 in August 2022, slightly lower relative to the August 2021 reading of 66.
  
• The craft index at 28 is well below the August 2021 reading of 59.
  
• The premium lights index posted a reading of 38, below the August 2021 reading of 57.
  
• The premium regular segment index is at 33, below the August 2021 reading of 41.
  
• The below premium segment is at 42, which is slightly higher than the August 2021 reading of 37. For a third month, this is the only segment to see an increase year-over-year. 
  
• The FMB/seltzer index took another big hit, falling to 31 in August 2022 from the August 2021 reading of 58.
  
• Finally, the cider segment remains below 50, with the August 2022 results at 26 compared to August 2021’s reading of 43.