October Beer Purchasers’ Index shows craft orders from distributors continue to shrink

The National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) released the Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for October 2024, revealing both improvements and persistent concerns for beer distributors.

Beer ordering levels increase from September

October’s BPI reading climbed to 42, up 11 points from September’s 31. This jump signals a positive shift in beer ordering levels. However, the reading is still down from October 2023, which stood at 48. This year-over-year decline indicates distributors are still approaching the market cautiously.

A cautious outlook persists

Despite the monthly increase, October’s BPI is still below the expansion threshold of 50. The cautious distributor sentiment continues, consistent with a post-COVID trend. For the past three years, October readings have been in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Adding to the caution is the at-risk inventory reading of 50, suggesting a balanced level of concern regarding inventory nearing expiration.

Key segment performance

• The index for imports continues to point to expanding volumes with an October 2024 reading of 56; however, this is 11 points lower than the October 2023 reading of 67
• The craft index at 25 for October 2024 continues to signal contraction in this segment and is six points lower than the October 2023 reading at 31
• The premium lights index fell to 41 for October 2024, 12 points lower than the October 2023 reading at 53
• The premium regular index fell to 34 for October 2024, 15 points lower than the October 2023 reading at 49
• The below premium segment for October 2024 at 54 is nine points higher than the October 2023 reading of 45
• The FMB/seltzer reading for October 2024 at 38 is 10 points higher than the October 2023 reading at 28
• Finally, the cider segment posted an October 2024 reading at 29 compared to 35 for October 2023

Comparing to past months

The October BPI’s increase is notable but comes with mixed messages. The craft segment has remained in contraction throughout the year, and premium segments have struggled. However, the rebound in FMB/seltzer and the expansion in below premium offerings suggest changing consumer dynamics.

Looking forward

The beer industry is still navigating a challenging environment, and the cautious sentiment is expected to continue. How distributors adapt to shifting consumer preferences and economic pressures will shape the industry’s path forward.