On-premise alcohol trends improve through mid-June

The smart folks at GuestMetrics are revolutionizing how the hospitality industry operates and understands its customers and products. The company collects data from over 10,000 restaurants closely representative of the broad on-premise sector across geographies, and with respect to the make-up of casual dining, bars/clubs, fine dining and lodging. Here’s the company’s latest report (read it here):

On-premise trends improved during the latest four weeks ending June 14th, with traffic down 1.6 percent vs. down 2 percent for the last 12 weeks (and down 2.7 percent for the prior four-week period). The improvement is an encouraging sign as the last week of the period was negatively impacted by the shift of Father’s Day to the following week, which will bolster the next period. YTD traffic is still weak at down 1.2 percent vs. down 0.7 percent in 2014. Higher sequential gas prices might be an incremental headwind for the lower and middle income consumers but overall higher confidence driven by an improved job outlook is likely playing a role in the marginal improvement in trends.

Share changes between alcohol beverage categories: Beer unit share is down 0.8 percent in the latest four weeks, wine share was flat and spirits share was up 0.8 percent, similar to the 12-week trend.

Total Alcohol: Total alcohol units sold was -1.9 percent during the four weeks, a decent improvement from -3.0 percent seen during the latest 12 weeks, and generally in line with the -1.8 percent from 2014. The on-premise channel displayed this improvement during a period when off-premise sales have deteriorated.

Beer: Beer unit growth was -3.7 percent during the four weeks through June 14th an improvement from the -4.6 percent 12-week trend.

Beer Segments: Craft’s y/y share gains slowed significantly from the +1.8 percent gain in 2014 to +1.0 percent during the latest 12 weeks, but crept up slightly to +1.1 percent during the latest four weeks. Premium Light’s y/y share has moderated from -1.9 percent during 2014 to -1.4 during the latest 12 weeks and -1.3 points on the four weeks. Imports’ y/y share loss improved from -0.3 points during 2014 to -0.1 during the latest 12 but softened slightly to -0.2 percent during the four weeks, and Cider’s y/y share gain slowed fairly significantly from +0.5 percent during 2014 to +0.2 percent during the latest 12 weeks and +0.2 percent during the latest four weeks.

Overall Spirits: Spirits unit growth was +0.1 percent during the latest four weeks, a solid improvement from the -1.0 percent seen during the latest 12 weeks and slightly above the -0.3 [ercent seen during the full year 2014.

Spirits Categories: Segments gaining y/y share of spirits during the four weeks are Tequila, Irish, Bourbons/Blends and Brandy/Cognac, coming at the expense of Rum, Cordials and Vodka.

Craft Spirits: Domestic craft spirits continue to take market share at an accelerated pace.

Overall Wine: Wine volumes were -1.7 percent during latest four weeks, a decent improvement from the -3.2 percent seen the latest 12 weeks though still below -0.9 percent from full year 2014.

Wine Varietals: YTD, the largest y/y volume share gainers have been Prosecco, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, Red Blend, Moscato and Sauvignon Blanc, while the largest share donors were Merlot, Chardonnay, Riesling and Zinfandel.