Beer purchasing contraction in September is officially an annual trend

The Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for September 2024 shows a continued downshift in distributor sentiment, falling further into contraction territory to a reading of 31. This follows a trend for the post-Covid marketplace, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA), which has seen contracting (<50) BPI readings the past three Septembers.

After a summer of heightened ordering levels, the combination of index readings for at-risk inventory (47) and BPI (31) reflects a more cautious outlook among distributors as they head into the fall months. The brutal call of the craft index also continues. See below.

The NBWA’s BPI is the only forward-looking indicator for distributors to measure expected beer demand. The index surveys beer distributors’ purchases across different segments and compares them to previous years. A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting.

All segments were down year-over-year except for FMB/Seltzer, which rose 10 points to 38. The only segment in expansion territory (>50) is Imports, which marked its 52nd straight month with a reading above 50. 

Looking across segments for September

• The index for imports continues to point to expanding volumes with a September 2024 reading of 53, nine points lower than September 2023 reading of 62.
   
• The craft index at 21 for September 2024 continues to signal contraction in this segment and is six points lower than the September 2023 reading at 27.
   
• The premium lights index fell to 38 for September 2024, nine points lower than the September 2023 reading at 47.
   
• The premium regular index fell to 30 for September 2024, ten points lower than the September 2023 reading at 40.
   
• The below premium segment for September 2024 at 35 marks a seven point decrease from the September 2023 reading of 42.
   
• The FMB/seltzer reading for September 2024 at 38 is ten points higher than the September 2023 reading at 28.
   
• Finally, the cider segment posted a September 2024 reading at 27 compared to 35 for September 2023.